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120. | 日系紙の発行部数の推定(91kview/116res) | Free talk | 2020/11/19 13:20 |
日系紙の発行部数の推定
- #1
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- 元手術室看護師
- 2013/04/25 09:11
仕事に使えそうなSF都市圏のデータを見つけましたので整理して転載します。SF都市圏とは、サンフランシスコ、ペニンシュラ、ノースベイ、サクラメント、イーストベイ、サウスベイ、サンタクルズ、モントレーまでを含んだ地域全体のことをここではさしています。
①全体人口 709万人(東京都が1,300万人)
②邦人人口 2.9万人(山形県長井市相当)
③邦人比率 0.32%(1,000人中3人くらい)
④SF都市圏の日系紙標準部数 4,652部(標準的な部数の推定値)
⑤SF都市圏の日系紙限界部数 18,079部(これ以上は統計的にありそうにないという限界部数の推定値)
これらの数字から次の3つの結論が導き出されるそう。
【結論1】邦人2.9万人に対して日系紙の発行部数が18,079部を超えることは統計的にほぼありそうにない。
【結論2】実質的な部数はこれよりももっともっと少ないはず。
【結論3】広告を出すときは宣伝をする相手が997人なのか3人なのかをまずは明確にすべき。
如何でしょうか。とても信頼できる数値だと思います。
経費を最小にするためにも、こういった客観的な数字をもとにしていろいろなことを検討したいものです。
- #4
-
途中でアップされてしまいました。
>4と5はどのように求めましたか?
まず世界110カ国12,229紙の各種データを(たとえば以下のサイトから)取得します。
http://www.pressnet.or.jp/data/circulation/circulation04.html
http://www.wan-ifra.org/microsites/world-press-trends
ここから『発行部数÷人口』の頻度分布を作ると次のようになります。
横軸が『発行部数÷人口』で、縦軸が『媒体数÷全世界の媒体数(12,229紙)』です。
横軸:縦軸
10 : 49
20 : 34
30 : 10
40 : 6
50 : 5
60 : 4
70 : 2
80 : 0
90 : 0
100: 0
ここから一人当たりの平均発行部数と最大発行部数を求めると次のようになります。
標準 0.1604部(中央値)
最大 0.6234部(これ以上は全体のたった2%で統計的にはほぼありえない)
これらの数値にSF都市圏の邦人人口2.9万人をかけたものが④と⑤です。
Posting period for “ 日系紙の発行部数の推定 ” has been closed.
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